中美两国如何相互影响就业增长——基于全球价值链网络的视角
How do China and the United States Interactively Affect Employment Growth——A Perspective from Global Value Chain Networks
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摘要: 基于全球价值链网络的视角,采用跨国投入—产出分析与结构分解方法,可以探究中国与美国在就业方面的相互影响。研究发现,劳动生产率的提高对中美两国就业增长的影响都是负面的,技术—分工变化和最终需求变化的影响都是正面的。中国的就业增长主要来源于最终需求变化,美国则主要来源于技术—分工变化。无论是最终需求变化还是技术—分工变化对就业的影响,首要决定因素是中美两国的各自国内因素。综合来看,中美两国对彼此就业的贡献基本是正面的,但存在一定的非对称性以及劳动力特征和行业的异质性。中美两国参与全球价值链分工的不同方式显著影响两国的就业增长与结构变化。研究结果有助于理解当前中美两国的贸易摩擦以及中国在世界经济中的重要作用。Abstract: This paper employs transnational input-output analysis and structural decomposition analysis (SDA) to investigate how China interacts with the US in affecting mutual employment growth in the context of global value chain (GVC) networks.We find that the rise in labor productivity exerts negative impact on both countries'employment growths,but changing in technology and division of labor (DoL) as well as rising final demand can lead to more employment.Employment growth in China is primarily driven by changes in final demand,whereas in the US,it is mainly attributable to changes in technology-DoL.The domestic factors in two countries predominantly account for the impacts of technology-DoL and final demand changes on employment.Overall,both countries make positive contributions to each other's employment,but such mutual contributions are asymmetric and heterogeneous for labor characteristics and sectors.The patterns of GVC participation significantly affect two countries'employment growth and structure.This study helps to understand the current trade frictions between China and the US,as well as China's important role in the world economy.
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Key words:
- Chinese economy /
- American economy /
- employment /
- global value chain (GVC) networks
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