中国财政支出预决算偏离的原因:预算调整的视角
作者简介:李明,对外经济贸易大学国际经济贸易学院教授(北京 100029);李珍珍,对外经济贸易大学国际经济贸易学院博士研究生(北京 100029);孔蔚然,中国农业发展银行湖州分行(浙江湖州 313000)。
基金项目:
本文为国家社会科学基金重大项目“新时代中国预算绩效管理改革研究”(19ZDA072)、北京社会科学基金青年学术带头人项目“我国财政支出结构演变与展望研究”(21DTR012)、对外经济贸易大学研究生科研创新基金(202309)的阶段性成果。
摘要: 预算体现国家的战略和政策,反映政府活动的范围和方向。预算与作为执行结果的决算偏离过高,意味着约束不够,规划的战略和政策可能存在执行偏差。基于此,以省本级支出预决算为例,可以探究中国预决算偏离的成因。通过将预决算偏离分解为经预算调整形成的偏离和未经调整形成的偏离,测算了两部分偏离各自的贡献,发现中国支出预决算偏离度总体较高,经预算调整形成偏离的贡献占主导。进一步,基于采集的2014—2022年公开可得的468份省本级预算调整报告,解析触发预算调整的力量,发现新增债务和转移支付下达、动用预算稳定调节基金,是触发预算调整最主要的直接原因,尤其是前两者。鉴于两者在管理上采用自上而下的方式,这意味着中国预决算偏离是内嵌于预算管理体制的。基于预算调整视角的分析,为中国预决算偏离的成因提供了来自预算管理实践的全景式考察,对加快健全现代预算制度有一定启示。
Analyzing the Causes of Expenditures Budget Deviation in China: A Perspective on Budget Adjustments
Abstract: The budget reflects the country's strategies and policies, and reflects the scope and direction of government activities. Excessive deviation between the budget and the final accounts means that the budget constraint is insufficient, and there may be implementation deviation of the planned strategies and policies. This paper takes the budget and final accounts of provincial-level expenditures as an example to explore the causes of the deviation of the budget and final accounts in China and to provide reference for the enhancement of budget constraints. The study initially finds that the expenditures budget deviation in China is relatively high, with contributions from deviations formed through budget adjustments being dominant. Accordingly, the paper further collects 468 publicly available provincial-level budget adjustment reports from 2014 to 2022, analyzing the forces triggering budget adjustments. It identifies that the main reasons are the issuance of government debts, the allocation of transfer payments, and the utilization of budget stabilization adjustment funds, especially the former two. Given the former two are managed in a top-down management manner, this implies that budgetary deviations in China are embedded in the budget management system. Further empirical research also supports this conclusion. Compared with the existing (especially some empirical) studies focusing on individual factors, this paper, based on a budget adjustment perspective, provides a panoramic examination of the causes of budget deviation in China from the perspective of budget management practices. This study has significant implications for accelerating the development of a modern budgetary system.