制度变革的经济绩效—兼论优化配置与创新驱动的作用
Economic Performance of Institutional Change
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摘要: 改革开放以来,中国取得了举世瞩目的经济成就。这一成就的取得与改革开放所释放的制度性红利密切相关。但近年来,改革进入深水区,开放遭遇瓶颈期,制度对经济增长的绩效需要进行再检验。基于2003−2016年省际面板数据,实证结果表明:2003年以来,中国制度质量与经济增长仍然显著正相关,但制度的“门槛”效应已经显现;制度变革既通过优化资源配置,也通过激励技术创新提升经济绩效。在优化配置路径中,劳动力转移对经济增长的贡献度明显高于资本,约是资本贡献度的两倍;在创新驱动路径中,制度的创新激励效能非常明显,制度变革经技术创新中介传导对经济增长的贡献度约为50%。分区域看,东部地区是资源优化配置的主要受益者,但“门槛”效应已十分显著;中西部地区制度质量的边际改进对经济增长的贡献度大于东部地区,技术创新中介效应主要源于创新投入,但存在创新要素错配问题。由此得出的结论对中国进一步推进要素市场制度建设和完善创新驱动发展机制具有一定的政策启示作用。Abstract: Since the reform and opening up, China has made remarkable economic achievements. These achievements are closely related to the institutional dividend released by the reform and opening up. However, in recent years, the reform has entered the deep water zone, and the opening has hit a bottleneck. The effect of institution on the economic growth needs to be reexamined. Based on the provincial panel data from 2003 to 2016, this paper empirically analyzes the effect of institutional quality on economic growth. The empirical results show that since 2003, the institutional quality and economic growth are still significantly positively correlated, but the “threshold” effect of the institution has appeared, and the institutional change improves economic performance by optimizing resource allocation and stimulating technological innovation. In the context of optimizing resource allocation, the contribution of labor migration to economic growth is significantly higher than that of capital, which is about twice the contribution of capital. In the context of innovation-driven path, the innovation and incentive efficiency of the institution is very obvious, and the contribution of institutional change to economic growth by technological innovation intermediary transmission is about 50%. The eastern part benefits more from the optimal allocation of resources, and the marginal improvement of institutional quality in the central and western parts contributes more to economic growth than in the eastern part. However, there may be problems of mismatch of innovative elements. The conclusion of this paper has policy implications to further develop the market system and improve the innovation-driven mechanism.
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Key words:
- institutional quality /
- resource allocation /
- technological innovation /
- economic growth
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表 1 各变量的描述性统计结果
变量名 含义 样本数 均值 标准差 最小值 最大值 lngdp 地区生产总值的对数 420 9.1310 1.0279 5.9667 11.3004 lnk 地区资本存量的对数 420 9.5763 1.2095 6.1258 12.0433 lnl 地区劳动存量的对数 420 7.5686 0.8145 5.6692 8.8137 Ins 地区制度质量 420 6.2719 1.7828 2.5300 10.9200 表 2 制度质量对经济增长影响的回归结果
全国 东部 中部 西部 变量 (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) lnK 0.5904***(84.04) 0.5763***(94.84) 0.5106***(41.68) 0.6574***(37.30) 0.6393***(68.02) lnL 0.2142***(3.21) 0.3798***(11.96) 0.7224***(7.98) 1.2492***(4.45) 0.0839(0.76) Ins 0.0259***(3.71) 0.0054(0.75) 0.0066(0.78) 0.0558***(3.98) 0.0503***(4.01) 常数项 2.0144***(4.36) 0.7020***(3.22) −0.9506(−1.61) 13.3990***(6.25) 3.5576***(4.66) 模型 FE RE FE FE FE F统计量 5766.93 2696.39 1984.63 2747.22 Wald统计量 14308.24 R-square 0.9782 0.9769 0.9498 0.9910 0.9666 Obs 420 420 182 84 154 注:***表示通过1%显著性水平检验,**表示通过5%显著性水平检验,*表示通过10%显著性水平检验,括号内为参数估计的t统计量的绝对值。 表 3 调节效应回归结果
全国 中西部 变量 (6) (7) (8) (9) lnK 0.5439***(31.95) 0.5891***(83.71) 0.5998***(23.43) 0.6294***(75.46) lnL 0.1481**(2.13) 0.1180(1.42) 0.2034*(1.96) 0.2505**(1.98) Ins −0.1113***(−3.79) −0.1524**(−2.29) 0.1136**(2.47) −0.1240(−1.16) lnk×Ins 0.0086***(3.00) 0.0057(1.25) lnl×Ins 0.0166*(1.91) 0.00873(0.63) 常数项 2.9731***(5.33) 2.7499***(4.58) 5.0643***(6.53) 5.1287***(5.54) F统计量 4417.06 4355.92 3091.15 3074.17 Year 控制 控制 控制 控制 Province 控制 控制 控制 控制 R-square 0.9787 0.9784 0.9792 0.9792 Obs 420 420 238 238 注:***表示通过1%显著性水平检验,**表示通过5%显著性水平检验,*表示通过10%显著性水平检验,括号内为参数估计的t统计量的绝对值。 表 4 中介效应回归结果
全国 中西部 变量 (10) (11) (12) (13) (14) (15) lnK 0.5026***
(36.44)0.5005***
(47.53)0.4506***
(27.66)0.5367***
(34.47)0.5604***
(41.46)0.6039***
(27.73)lnL 0.2339***
(15.17)0.2005***
(14.52)0.2624***
(19.34)0.3378***
(18.43)0.2876***
(12.05)0.3867***
(19.42)Ins 0.0599***
(6.92)0.0538***
(8.03)0.0554***
(6.82)0.0425***
(3.33)−0.0102
(−0.96)0.0056
(0.48)lnRDE 0.1688***
(8.99)0.1640***
(6.58)lnRDL 0.2286***
(14.53)0.1623***
(6.09)lnPAT 0.1722***
(10.56)0.0147
(0.66)常数项 −0.1193
(−1.14)0.0331
(0.41)0.9481***
(9.85)−0.6701***
(−4.56)−0.2026*
(−1.89)0.1042
(0.78)R-square 0.9707 0.9770 0.9724 0.9780 0.9775 0.9739 Sobel统计量 0.0593***
(8.111)0.06547***
(8.427)0.0638***
(8.218)0.0505***
(5.715)0.0183***
(3.598)0.0024
(0.6563)中介效应占比 49.75% 54.88% 53.51% 68% 72.39% 29.76% 注:***表示通过1%显著性水平检验,**表示通过5%显著性水平检验,*表示通过10%显著性水平检验,括号内为参数估计的t统计量的绝对值。 -

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