重读凯恩斯:萧条经济学的演化生成与理论挑战
作者简介:韦森,复旦大学经济学院教授(上海 200433)
摘要: 约翰·梅纳德·凯恩斯是位货币经济学家,他的主要经济学著作是从货币的视角论述现代资本主义市场经济的运行;他的三本主要经济学著作−《货币改革论》《货币论》《就业、利息和货币通论》论述的最终目的,都是在解释现代资本主义市场经济的商业周期产生的原因以及解救措施。通过研读和探讨凯恩斯主要著作的整个经济学理论框架的建构及其理论逻辑,从中可以给出对凯恩斯经济学体系一个整体的理解和把握,主要包括:(1)基于凯恩斯从开始进行经济学写作到《货币改革论》中对货币与商业周期的理论论述,发现凯恩斯认为到20世纪20年代各国管理货币势在必行。一国国内的价格水平是由银行信贷所决定的,而商业银行的信贷创造货币。在《货币改革论》阶段,凯恩斯已经开始强调工商界人士(business men)的预期在经济周期中的作用。(2)在《货币论》一开始,凯恩斯就详细探讨了货币的基本概念,并创造性地提出了记账货币和银行货币这些概念,并在第三篇初步建构了他的宏观经济总量分析框架。凯恩斯在《货币论》一书中承袭了魏克赛尔的“自然利率”概念,进而从市场利率与自然利率的背离来分析现代市场经济的商业周期产生的原因。(3)到了《通论》阶段,凯恩斯已经抛弃了魏克赛尔的“自然利率”概念,并创生出他自己的“资本的边际效率”概念,进而以“资本的边际效率”与市场利率的关系为基础,构建出他的投资和经济波动的萧条经济学的理论论证框架,并认为资本主义市场经济中的商业周期是由资本的边际效率突然崩溃所造成的。(4)《通论》出版后,国际经济学界对凯恩斯萧条经济学的理论分析进行了批评与商榷。由此发现,由于当代经济宏观经济学家们已经不再使用凯恩斯的“资本的边际效率”概念,因而当代经济学已经部分抛弃了凯恩斯的萧条经济学的理论分析框架。
Rereading Keynes: Evolutionary Formation and Theoretical Criticisms of Keynes’ Economic Theory on Depression
- Available Online:
2022-03-20
Abstract: John Maynard Keynes is one of great monetary economists and his main works of economics are explanation of function of modern capitalist economies from a point of view of money. Final goal of Keynes’ three main books of A Tract on Monetary Reform, A Treatise on Money and The General Theory of Employment, Interest and Money are exploring the fundamental causes of business cycles in modern capitalist economies. The first section of this article gives a brief review of the states of studies of Keynes’ theories. The second offers some reviews of Keynes’ early theory on money and business cycles from his works in the early stage to A Tract on Monetary Reform, find that Keynes believes that managed currency is inevitable trend for a modern economy in the 1920s. Keynes also find that price level in one country is determined by banks’ credit and loan, and the credit and loan of commercial banks can endogenously create money. The third give some reviews on total theoretical structure and explanation of Keynes’ A Treatise on Money. In the beginning of the book, Keynes explores the various concepts of money in detail and creatively coins the two concepts of money, i.e., money of account and bank money. In the third part of Treatise, Keynes preliminarily constructs his theoretical framework of macroeconomic analysis. In the book, Keynes adopts Knut Wicksell’s concept of natural rate of interest but defines it as the one when saving equals to investment in a society. He further investigates the causes and mechanisms of business cycles in modern market economies from a point of view of deviation of market interest rate from the natural rate. The four section reviews the whole theoretical framework and demonstration logic of Keynes’ The General Theory. In the stage of The General Theory, Keynes has abandoned the Wicksellian concept of natural rate of interest and consequently creates his own concept of the marginal efficiency of capital. Based on the explanation of relations between marginal efficiency of capital and market rate, Keynes constructs his theoretical framework of industrial fluctuations of and finally attribute the fundamental causes of economic recession to a sudden collapse of the marginal efficiency of capital in an economy. The final section briefly gives some introduction of criticisms of Keynes’ economic theory of depression after the publication of The General Theory. Finally, we find that since most contemporary macroeconomists have abandoned Keynes’s concept of the marginal efficiency of capital, we can say that Keynes’ own theory of business cycles has be discarded by most mainstream economists today.