赋税结构演变、人口增长与“高水平均衡陷阱”
Taxation Structure Change,Population Growth, and the High-Level Equilibrium Trap
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摘要: 基于中国历史上的赋税结构演变的线索,由此考察赋税结构演变与人口增长的长期关系,为解释“高水平均衡陷阱”的形成提供了一个新的假说。自汉代开始,中国历史上的赋税变革沿着“摊丁入亩”的路线在持续推进,赋税结构演变的过程与人口规模扩张的动态基本匹配。通过构建一个包含内生生育率的动态一般均衡模型,可以分析赋税结构变化的生育效应(收入效应、动态效应与价格效应),揭示赋税结构演变在人口规模持续扩张以及经济演进中的作用。采用模拟方法,直观展示了赋税结构演变在人口增长与经济演进中的重要意义。本研究为理解“高水平均衡陷阱”“李约瑟之谜”与“大分流”等历史谜题提供了新的洞见,为深入理解中国式现代化提供了历史论述。Abstract: This paper provides a new hypothesis for interpreting the formation of the “high-level equilibrium trap” in China.Since the Han Dynasty,the tax reform in Chinese history has been continuously promoted along the route of tan ding ru mu,and the dynamic of taxation structure perfectly matches the dynamic of population growth.This paper develops a dynamic general equilibrium model with endogenous fertility rate,analyzes the effects of taxation structure on fertility (income effect,dynamic effect and price effect),and reveals the role of taxation evolution in the formation of the high-level equilibrium trap.A numerical simulation is applied to show the implication of taxation change in population growth and economic evolution.
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