世界经济增长分析框架:新变量及其创新发展
作者简介:权衡,上海社会科学院研究员(上海 200020)
摘要: 世界经济增长实践正在发生深刻变化。传统的基于生产要素函数理论为基础形成的经济增长理论和方法,正在遇到一系列新的实践变革带来的巨大挑战。新冠疫情全球大流行、国际投资贸易规则新变化、全球经济区域化周边化、大国经济政策溢出效应、“一带一路”倡议、双循环新发展格局、全球减碳战略实施以及大数据和人工智能等等重大新变量、新因素正在深刻冲击和改变传统世界经济增长格局,客观上也在影响和重塑传统经济增长的速度、总量、资源配置结构、企业组织、产业结构、规制结构以及全要素生产率新机理,潜在地推动世界经济增长理论创新和发展。理论研究和创新发展需要把这些新变量、新因素引进传统分析框架,构建并形成统一而综合的世界经济增长新分析框架。这是世界经济增长理论包括国别经济发展理论创新发展的新方向和新空间。
Analysis Framework of World Economy Growth: New Variables and Their Innovative Development
- Available Online:
2022-07-20
Abstract: The practices of world economy growth are undergoing profound changes. The traditional theories and methods of economy growth that based on the theory of production factor function are facing great challenges brought by a series of new practical changes. Major new variables and factors, such as the global pandemic of the COVID-19, new changes in international investment and trade rules, the regionalization of the global economy, the spillover effect of major countries’ economic policies, the Belt and Road initiative, the new development pattern of double cycles in China, the implementation of the global carbon reduction strategy, big data and AI, are profoundly impacting and changing the traditional world economy growth pattern, and also objectively affecting and reshaping the world economy’s speed, total amount, and resource allocation structure, enterprise organization, industrial structure, regulation structure and its new mechanism of total factor productivity; at the same time, all these new factors actually have potentially promoted the innovation and development of the theory of world economy growth. Theoretical research and innovative development need to introduce these new variables and factors into the traditional analysis framework to build and form a unified and comprehensive new analysis framework for world economy growth. This is a new direction and potential for the innovation and development of world economy growth theories, including national economic development theories.