全球化变局下中国的产业转移和产业升级:2000—2022年
China’s Industrial Transfer and Industrial Upgrading under the Variation of Globalization:2000—2022
-
摘要: 2001年中国加入WTO以来,经济迅速融入全球产业链,产业不断升级,“世界工厂”的地位日渐形成。但是自2006年起,中国劳动力成本开始上升,2018年中美贸易摩擦和科技争端升级,2020年新冠疫情蔓延使全球产业链的连续性面临考验,2022年俄乌冲突爆发使全球产业链的安全性面临挑战。对于发达国家来讲,全球产业链朝着“在岸”“近岸”和“友岸”方向被重新布局。与此同时,中国政府也将创新驱动和产业升级作为国家战略来推动。这些变化无疑会对中国产业结构的演变产生重大影响,中国制造产业如何转移和升级是两个需要研究的问题。通过结合劳动力工资、国际和国内地区性贸易流、全球关税水平、发明专利授权等多维度的数据,对中国2000—2022年的产业转移和产业升级进行全面回顾,得出的研究结论显示:(1)劳动力成本的提高不构成推动中国劳动密集型产业转移的主要因素,在国际上暂时也不存在能够大规模吸收中国产业转移的国家;(2)构成中国劳动密集型产业韧性的外因是自金融危机时期以来全球化进程的相对停滞,内因是中国内陆地区依据比较优势资源重新配置带来的内部产业转移;(3)中国在技术密集型产业及其背后的技术进步和应用上发展迅速,但是存在地区发展差异和过度依赖外需和产业政策的问题。因此,坚持持续扩大开放和利用好产业政策以平衡地区间产业结构转型和应对外需冲击,是未来中国贸易政策和产业规划制定的重要参考因素。
-
关键词:
- 产业转移|产业升级|技术进步
Abstract: Since China’s accession to the WTO,its economy has rapidly integrated into the global industrial chain,its industry has been constantly upgraded,and its status as the “world factory” has gradually taken shape.Many argue that rising labor costs and the need for industrial upgrading may lead China to begin a large-scale industrial shift to other emerging economies.This paper makes a comprehensive review of China’s industrial transfer and upgrading from 2000 to 2022 based on multi-dimensional data such as labor wages,international and domestic regional trade flows,global tariff levels,and invention patent authorization.The conclusions of this paper show that:(1)The increase of labor cost does not constitute the main factor to promote the transfer of China’s labor-intensive industries,and there is no country in the world that can absorb China’s industrial transfer on a large scale.(2)The external cause of the resilience of China’s labor-intensive industries is the relative stagnation of globalization process since the financial crisis,and the internal cause is the internal industrial transfer caused by the reallocation of resources based on comparative advantages in China’s inland areas;(3)China has developed rapidly in technology-intensive industries and the technological progress and application behind them,but there are problems such as regional development differences and excessive dependence on external demand and industrial policies.This paper argues that continuing to expand opening up and making good use of industrial policies to balance the transformation of industrial structure between regions and cope with external demand shocks are important reference factors for China’s future trade policy and industrial planning. -

计量
- 文章访问数: 941
- HTML全文浏览量: 350