分税制改革如何影响了中国城镇化质量
How Tax-sharing Reform Affects the Quality of Urbanization in China
-
摘要: 央地财政关系与城镇化质量是新时期关乎国计民生的重大议题。理解中国城镇化质量需要在央地财政关系和城镇化质量之间形成逻辑内洽的分析框架。在逻辑推演层面,央地财政关系是中国城镇化实现快速发展的基础性制度,也是造成中国城镇化质量不高的制度性成因,央地财政关系可以通过引导地方政府行为影响城镇化发展质量。在实证研究层面,基于1979−2020年省级面板数据,借助1994年实施的分税制改革可以考察央地财政关系调整对中国城镇化质量的影响。结果表明:(1)分税制改革增强了地方政府的“为增长而竞争”模式,在一系列稳健性检验后该结论依然成立。(2)中国城镇化质量不高是地方政府“为增长而竞争”的代价,对城镇化质量的特征事实的实证研究为该结论提供了经验证据。研究结果的政策含义是:提高城镇化质量除了可以通过改革官员政绩考核体系来直接推进以外,还可以通过调整央地财政关系来间接引导。这为新时期建立现代财政制度与提高城镇化质量提供了有益的政策启示。Abstract: The fiscal relationship between the central government and the local government and the quality of urbanization are major issues of national importance in the new era. However, not enough attention has been paid to the relationship between the fiscal relationship between the central government and the quality of urbanization, and there is a paucity of literature examining the relationship between the two. In view of this, this paper examines the impact of central-territorial fiscal relationship adjustment on the quality of urbanization in China with the help of provincial panel data from 1979 to 2020 and the tax-sharing reform implemented in 1994. The study finds that, firstly, the tax-sharing reform has increased local government competition as measured by the promotion of local officials, and this finding holds after a series of robustness tests. Secondly, the increased level of local government competition has led to a low quality of urbanization in China, a finding supported by three aspects of urbanization quality (low household population share, insufficient consumer demand and lagging service sector development). The findings of this paper imply that improving the quality of urbanization can be promoted not only by reforming the performance appraisal system of officials, but also by adjusting the fiscal relationship between the central and the local government. This provides useful policy insights for establishing a modern fiscal system and improving the quality of urbanization in the new era.
-
表 1 主要变量描述
变量 变量描述 解释变量 经济规模(wgdp) 各省GDP在全国GDP的占比 常住人口规模(wrespop) 各省常住人口数在全国人口总数的占比 户籍人口规模(wregpop) 各省户籍人口数在全国人口总数的占比 消费规模(wfc) 各省最终消费额在全国最终消费额的占比 投资规模(wcf) 各省资本形成额在全国资本形成额的占比 净出口规模(wne) 各省净出口额在全国净出口额的占比 农业规模(wpre) 各省第一产业产值在全国的占比 制造业规模(wsec) 各省第二产业产值在全国的占比 服务业规模(wter) 各省第三产业产值在全国的占比 其他控制变量 GDP增长速度的任期内均值(mggdp) 任期内GDP平均增长速度 人均GDP(pgdp) 人均GDP水平可以反映地区经济发展阶段 辖区土地面积(land) 全省土地面积 任期(term) 从上任到当年之间年数 年龄(age) 观测值所在年份—出生年份 受教育程度(edu) 博士为3,硕士为2,本专科为1,大学以下为0 行政级别(level) 副国级为1,正部级为0 表 2 描述性统计
变量 分税制改革前 分税制改革后 晋升 未晋升 晋升 未晋升 N mean min max N mean min max N mean min max N mean min max 经济规模 63 0.0330 0.00100 0.0890 402 0.0320 0.00100 0.102 169 0.0410 0.0110 0.113 668 0.0300 0.00100 0.117 常住人口规模 63 0.0270 0.00200 0.0760 402 0.0330 0.00200 0.0760 169 0.0360 0.00800 0.0760 668 0.0310 0.00200 0.0890 户籍人口规模 25 0.0280 0.00200 0.0950 184 0.0340 0.00200 0.0980 169 0.0360 0.00700 0.0940 644 0.0320 0.00200 0.180 消费规模 59 0.0320 0.0130 0.0850 392 0.0330 0.00200 0.0990 169 0.0400 0.0140 0.111 575 0.0300 0.00100 0.119 投资规模 59 0.0380 0.0180 0.104 392 0.0330 0.00100 0.103 169 0.0420 0.0110 0.101 575 0.0290 0.00100 0.101 净出口规模 59 0.134 −1.018 3.691 378 0.0190 −4.089 5.553 169 0.0450 −0.500 0.431 575 0.0280 −0.928 0.710 农业规模 63 0.0270 0.00200 0.0990 402 0.0330 0.00200 0.0960 169 0.0360 0.00200 0.0890 668 0.0310 0.00100 0.0920 制造业规模 63 0.0360 0 0.0870 402 0.0320 0 0.112 169 0.0430 0.0100 0.117 668 0.0300 0 0.123 服务业规模 63 0.0340 0.00100 0.101 402 0.0320 0.00100 0.107 169 0.0420 0.0110 0.126 668 0.0300 0.00100 0.126 表 3 分税制改革对地方官员晋升的影响
VARIABLES (1)
all(2)
before1994(3)
after1994wgdp×post1994 8.45*** (2.87) wgdp −3.20 (3.19) 7.75*** (1.70) mggdp −1.51*** (0.41) −2.06*** (0.46) 2.39* (1.23) pgdp −0.15*** (0.04) 2.59*** (0.72) 0.05 (0.03) land −0.00 (0.00) −0.00 (0.00) 0.01*** (0.00) term −0.04** (0.02) −0.15*** (0.03) −0.00 (0.02) age −0.09*** (0.01) −0.03** (0.01) −0.11*** (0.01) edu −0.16** (0.07) −0.21 (0.16) −0.06 (0.07) level −0.06 (0.15) 0.19 (0.29) 0.36*** (0.13) Observations 1293 456 837 Controlled Variable YES YES YES Time FE YES YES YES Province FE YES NO NO 表 4 稳健性检验:更换被解释变量
VARIABLES (1)
promotion1(2)
promotion2wgdp×post1994 7.82** (3.15) 10.57** (4.64) Observations 1293 1293 Controlled Variable YES YES Time FE YES YES Province FE YES YES 表 5 稳健性检验:更换解释变量
VARIABLES (1)
promotion(2)
promotion(3)
promotionmwgdp×post1994 8.64*** (2.88) rank×post1994 0.02*** (0.01) lnwgdp×post1994 8.88*** (3.01) Observations 1293 1293 1293 Controlled Variable YES YES YES Time FE YES YES YES Province FE YES YES YES 表 6 稳健性检验:更换模型
VARIABLES (1)
LPM(2)
logit(3)
probit(4)
ologitwgdp×post1994 4.75*** (1.60) 17.52** (8.71) 10.57** (4.64) 13.54*** (5.17) Observations 1293 1014 1014 1293 Controlled Variable YES YES YES YES Time FE YES YES YES YES Province FE YES YES YES YES 表 7 地方官员晋升对常住与户籍人口规模的回归结果
VARIABLES (1)
promotion(2)
promotion(3)
promotionwrespop×post1994 6.696** (1.97) wregpop×post1994 9.683** (2.34) wrespop×wregpop×post1994 52.717 (1.07) mggdp −1.518*** (−3.71) −0.501 (−0.42) −0.611 (−0.51) pgdp −0.124*** (−3.62) −0.168*** (−4.14) −0.172*** (−4.25) land −0.002 (−1.16) −0.005** (−2.26) −0.005** (−2.19) term −0.042** (−2.17) −0.015 (−0.66) −0.016 (−0.74) age −0.095*** (−9.70) −0.128*** (−10.10) −0.128*** (−10.08) edu −0.159** (−2.42) −0.213*** (−2.97) −0.203*** (−2.83) level −0.009 (−0.06) 0.104 (0.55) 0.100 (0.53) Observations 1293 1022 1022 Time FE YES YES YES Province FE YES YES YES 表 8 地方官员晋升对三大需求规模的回归结果
VARIABLES (1)
promotion(2)
promotion(3)
promotionwfc×post1994 9.723** (2.56) wcf×post1994 14.629*** (4.26) wne×post1994 0.795*** (2.58) mggdp −1.543*** (−3.64) −1.568*** (−3.69) −1.690*** (−3.95) pgdp −0.175*** (−3.67) −0.151*** (−3.27) −0.131*** (−2.81) land −0.002 (−0.93) −0.002 (−1.02) −0.002 (−0.90) term −0.043** (−2.13) −0.045** (−2.22) −0.039* (−1.94) age −0.091*** (−8.94) −0.091*** (−8.89) −0.099*** (−9.54) edu −0.222*** (−3.05) −0.260*** (−3.52) −0.215*** (−2.95) level −0.107 (−0.68) −0.137 (−0.87) −0.134 (−0.85) Observations 1186 1186 1180 Time FE YES YES YES Province FE YES YES YES 表 9 地方官员晋升对三次产业规模的回归结果
VARIABLES (1)
promotion(2)
promotion(3)
promotionwpre×post1994 6.050* (1.90) wsec×post1994 7.992*** (2.72) wter×post1994 6.825** (1.98) mggdp −1.503*** (−3.67) −1.516*** (−3.71) −1.519*** (−3.71) pgdp −0.121*** (−3.41) −0.142*** (−4.03) −0.156*** (−4.20) term −0.042** (−2.14) −0.043** (−2.21) −0.045** (−2.31) age −0.094*** (−9.58) −0.093*** (−9.45) −0.093*** (−9.50) edu −0.160** (−2.44) −0.163** (−2.47) −0.159** (−2.42) level −0.027 (−0.17) −0.055 (−0.36) −0.082 (−0.54) Observations 1293 1293 1293 Time FE YES YES YES Province FE YES YES YES -