提高回报 激发需求—改善中国农村教育的空间政治经济学
Increase Returns and Arouse Demands
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摘要: 在城市化进程中,农村人口的人力资本关系到中国的长期经济发展和收入平等问题。为了有效加强农村人口的人力资本积累,相关政策必须通过提高教育回报来激发教育需求。长期以来,空间因素对教育回报的影响被忽视,教育资源和各种生产要素的空间错配可能通过降低教育回报而严重抑制农村人口的教育需求。通过总结一系列实证研究,本文说明:农村人口对于教育有潜在的需求,而这种需求建立在对于教育回报的预期之上;空间资源配置则通过影响教育回报而作用于农村人口的教育需求。为了迈向人力资本大国,为建设现代化经济体系持续提供优质的劳动力供给,中国必须优化教育资源和生产要素的空间配置,从而提高教育回报,激发农村人口的教育需求。Abstract: The sustainability and inclusiveness of the economic growth in China depend on rural population’s human capital. In order to strengthen human capital accumulation among rural population, the educational demand must be aroused by elevating returns to education. Neither from academic nor policy aspects, impacts of spatial factors on returns to education have been considered carefully. However, the spatial misallocation of educational resources and factors of production may lower returns to education, thus suppressing educational demands. By summarizing a series of empirical studies, this paper argues that there are potential demands for education among rural population, which are based on the expectation for returns to education, and the spatial allocation of resources has strong impacts on rural population’s educational demands via affecting returns to education. To build an intelligent country and provide high-quality labors to sustain the economic modernization, China must increase returns to education and arouse educational demands of rural population by improving the spatial efficiency of educational resources and production factors.
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表 1 农村青少年高中入学率的测算
年份 农村青少年高中入学率 城市青少年高中入学率 数据来源 2010 67.9%(毛入学率) 101.9%(毛入学率) 2010年人口普查微观数据 2015 77%−83%(净入学率) 97%−100%(净入学率) Wang等,2018④ 2017 84.3%(毛入学率) 100%(毛入学率假设值) 2017年全国教育事业发展统计公报;2010年人口普查微观数据 -