外汇发行、便利发行与中国的货币发行机制
Foreign Exchange Issuance, Facilitating Issuance and China’s Currency Issuance Mechanism
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摘要: 货币发行是央行管理货币流通的基础环节。本文梳理了中国货币发行的典型化事实,对比了外汇发行与便利发行的机理,并运用实证方法分析了中国货币发行机制的转变情况。结果表明:2014年以后,央行的外汇资产不断下降,央行通过各种货币政策工具,以国内资产为信用基础来发行货币,有效地抵补了外汇占款下降的影响,中国的货币发行机制正在从外汇发行转向便利发行。为了确保便利发行机制安全、高效地运行,确立对冲外汇占款的新方案、对可抵押品进行严格的信用评级和完善可抵押品管理框架、大力发展债券市场等几个方面值得重点关注。
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关键词:
- 外汇 /
- 对其他存款性公司债权 /
- 外汇发行 /
- 便利发行
Abstract: Currency issuance is the basic link for the central bank to manage currency circulation. We sort out the stylized facts of China’s currency issuance, compare the mechanism of foreign exchange issuance and facilitating issuance, and analyze the change of currency issuance mechanism by empirical method. The results show that after 2014, the central bank’s foreign exchange assets are declining, and the central bank effectively offset the influence of the funds outstanding for foreign exchange by various monetary policy instruments based on domestic assets. This means that China’s currency issuance mechanism is shifting from foreign exchange issuance to facilitating issuance. In order to ensure that the facilitating issuance mechanism runs safely and efficiently, it is necessary to establish a new scheme for hedgingthe funds outstanding for foreign exchange, carry out a strict credit rating on collateral, improve the framework for the management of the collateral, and develop the bond market. -
表 1 变量的描述性统计结果
第一阶段:2011年1月—2014年7月 第二阶段:2014年8月—2018年2月 统计量 WH BL MB 统计量 WH BL MB 均值 1520.0447 126.7007 2124.2123 均值 −1331.5107 2051.6484 968.2902 最大值 4945.34 12278.24 52080.6 最大值 533.37 25374.25 17056.65 最小值 −893.45 −12223.47 −31313.39 最小值 −7082.13 −8446.72 −14371.48 标准差 1640.4929 3800.236 11078.429 标准差 1723.2684 5772.7727 6715.5454 偏度 0.3355 −0.003 1.5271 偏度 −1.5754 1.2969 0.6062 峰度 1.9422 6.7102 12.5088 峰度 5.3776 7.5901 3.1405 表 2 关于储备货币的方差分解结果
对MB的方差分解 WH BL MB 第一阶段 22.4784 9.9324 67.5891 第二阶段 12.0588 33.5598 54.3814 -