情报失灵:美国对华经济政策再探(1942—1947)
作者简介:皇甫秋实,复旦大学中外现代化进程研究中心/历史系副教授 (上海 200433)。
基金项目:
本文系教育部人文社会科学规划基金项目“抗战时期美国参谋长联席会议对华决策研究(1942—1945年)”(22YJA770008)的阶段性成果
摘要: 第二次世界大战结束前后,美国政府针对中国战后经济计划展开专项调查,作为制定对华经济政策的重要依据,企图为美国培育商品和资本市场及原料产地,扶持中国取代日本在亚洲市场的地位,发展美国—中国—东南亚三边贸易,并与英国争夺在华经济霸权,将中国纳入美国主导的战后国际经济秩序。但美国国务院与总统特使之间存在竞争关系,不仅分散了美国对华经济政策的目标,并且削弱了经援作为美国政策手段的效果。情报偏好则导致美国政府对政策实施进度做出误判,高估了运用美援扭转民族主义趋势的效力,却低估了在战后中国推行自由经济的难度。加之战后中国并未有效吸引美国私人资本流入,政府经济援助成为美国介入战后中国经济的主要形式,并被国民政府和国营企业接收利用,从而加剧了中国国家资本的膨胀,造成美国对华经济政策手段和目标之间的矛盾进一步扩大。美国政府情报机制的内部分歧和认知偏好,构成了导致战后美国对华经济政策失败的重要因素。
Intelligence Failure: Revisiting the U.S.Economic Policy toward China (1942—1947)
Abstract: Around the end of World War II, the U. S. government conducted specialized investigations into China's post- war economic plans, which served as a key basis for formulating its economic policy toward China. The aim of the U. S. government was to integrate China into the U. S. -led post-war international economic order, with cultivating China as a market for American goods and capital, a source of raw materials, and a regional power that could replace Japan's economic position in Asia, developing a trilateral trade network involving the U. S., China, and Southeast Asia, and competing with Britain for economic dominance in China as well. However, rivalry between the State Department and presidential envoys fragmented the objectives of U. S. economic policy toward China and diluted the effectiveness of economic aid as a policy tool. Intelligence biases further led to misjudgments regarding policy implementation- overestimating the ability of U. S. assistance to counteract nationalist trends while underestimating the challenges of imposing a free-market economy in post-war China. Moreover, the failure to attract significant private American investment meant that U. S. government aid became the primary means of economic intervention, which was then appropriated by the Nationalist government and state-owned enterprises. This inadvertently fueled the expansion of state capitalism in China, exacerbating the contradictions between U. S. policy means and objectives. Ultimately, internal divisions within the U. S. intelligence apparatus and cognitive biases were critical factors contributing to the failure of America's post-war economic policy toward China.