利率管制与利率市场化——来自中国实践的总结
The Regulation and Liberalization of Chinese Interest Rate System
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摘要: 基准利率是货币政策传导中的核心环节。健全基准利率体系既是建设金融市场的关键，也是深入推进利率市场化改革的重要内容。通过围绕利率管制形成的历史逻辑、利率管制对经济增长以及对经济周期影响的探讨，可以从产业结构、收入分配结构及需求结构三个方面梳理利率管制造成中国经济结构失衡的内在逻辑。此外，在重点讨论中国利率双轨制形成的原因及利率双轨制带来的金融资源错配问题的基础上，阐明了中国利率市场化的现存挑战和未来方向。在此基础上，系统回顾了中国利率市场化的进程、路径和效果，并基于市场基准利率选择与培育的分析框架，指出市场基准利率应兼具政策利率与市场利率的优良特性，应是市场性与可控性、相关性与稳定性的统一。关于中国利率市场化的特征事实和相关研究成果的总结和评述，将对中国未来利率市场化的进一步发展提供重要的理论支撑和政策引导。Abstract: This article begins by examining the historical rationale behind interest rate regulation and its effects on economic growth and fluctuations.It then analyzes how interest rate regulation has led to structural imbalances in China’s economy,specifically in terms of industrial structure,income distribution structure,and demand structure.Additionally,this article delves into the factors that have contributed to the establishment of China’s dual-track interest rate system and the resulting issue of misallocation of financial resources.It also sheds light on the current challenges and future prospects for interest rate liberalization in China.
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