Keep the Bottom Line and Ensure Economic Security

China’s economic growth has remained within a reasonable range in 2018. However, the downward pressure has not diminished. There are several factors which affect the future of the Chinese economy, including the turning point of the population, the Sino-US trade war and the fall of growth of the world economy. We predict that in 2019, China’s economy will experience contraction in both supply and demand sides. The important risks include exchange rate and currency crisis, real estate crisis, local government debt problem, rising unemployment rate, and corporate debt problem; therefore, risk prevention will be the primary economic policy goal. Based on the macroeconomic management system with Chinese characteristics including market reform, supply management and demand management, in 2019, the combination of China’s macroeconomic policies includes improving market environment (which is the main measure), expansionary supply management (which comes secondly), and then expansionary demand management (which is an important adjunct).