摘要:
如何科学认识和理解当前中国经济持续下行压力的核心来源,迫切需要全新的理论假说加以分析和判断。在重新认识和挖掘“投资—消费”这两个关键变量之间相互决定性、相互支撑性的动态互动演化关系基础上,立足于符合类似中国这样超大规模经济体的经济运行规律和内在发展逻辑,尝试提出和构建“投资—创造不同收入水平就业岗位能力—消费”理论假说框架,以此来识别和解释导致当前中国经济增速持续下行压力的关键成因和核心源泉。当前中国经济持续下行压力的核心来源,是以创造中高收入就业岗位的高技术产业、资本密集型产业、创新密集型产业,对创造低收入就业岗位的传统产业和劳动密集型产业的替代和转移过程相对较为缓慢,突出表现为“高质量投资—创造中高收入就业岗位—中高端消费”之间融合机制和良性循环机制尚未占据主导地位,甚至这两者之间存在某些程度的隔离和割裂问题,进而阻碍了中国作为全球最大发展中国家所具有的独一无二超大规模经济体优势发挥。由此,提出了今后一段时期内中国经济高质量增长思路,需要全面转向和聚集到促进“激活高质量投资”和“创造中高收入就业岗位”之间的良性互动机制,进而重塑和促进“高质量投资—创造中高收入就业岗位—消费持续扩张”主导良性循环机制的加速形成。
Abstract:
Scientifically identifying the core causes of China's persistent economic slowdown demands novel theoretical hypotheses.By re-examining the interdependent and mutually reinforcing dynamic relationship between "investment and consumption" —two pivotal variables—this study proposes a theoretical framework: "Investmentcapacity to create employment at diverse income levels-consumption." This framework aims to explain the underlying causes of China's prolonged economic deceleration.The core issue lies in the sluggish transition from traditional laborintensive industries(generating low-income jobs) to high-tech,capital-intensive,and innovation-driven industries(creating mid-to-high-income jobs).Specifically,the virtuous cycle mechanism linking "high-quality investment," mid-to-high-income job creation, " and mid-to-high-end consumption" has yet to dominate China's economic structure.Instead,these elements remain fragmented,hindering the full utilization of China's unique advantage as the world's largest developing super-large economy.Consequently,this paper advocates shifting China's growth strategy toward fostering synergy between "activating high-quality investment" and "mid-to-high-income job creation," thereby accelerating the formation of a dominant virtuous cycle: "high-quality investment→ mid-to-high-income employment→ sustained consumption expansion."