解释中国经济增长的一个新数理逻辑框架——基于二元体制扭曲差值的分析方法
作者简介:周天勇,首都经贸大学特大城市研究院研究员(北京100070)。
摘要: 过去中国经济增长奇迹来源于何处,2011年以来经济增长为何放缓,未来经济会陷入低速增长吗,如果还能中高速增长,其潜能在哪里?这是国内外经济学界和国内政策研究界关注的重大问题。目前核算中国经济历史和预测其未来增长的索洛模型、乔根森模型和哈罗德多玛模型等主流算式,均以要素流体为主要内生变量。但与市场经济、发展中和体制瞬时转轨三类国家不同的是,中国是一个特长周期的渐进转轨国家,经济的各个方面存在着市场经济标准值与二元体制扭曲值之间的差值,并且许多扭曲不可被追求利益最大化的市场竞争主体所纠正。从中国1978年以来的实践观察,计划或二元体制并存造成资源利用的闲置和低效率,形成了体制剩余,使生产能力被扭曲所禁锢,增长速度就呈现低缓状态;推进改革纠正扭曲,释放生产力潜能,就会加快增长速度。对此,讨论中国经济增长内生动力时,需要将国民经济视为一个由流体、渠道和闸口组成的运行体系,其中闸口表达各种体制安排。因而,在核算和预测中国经济增长时,在原有流体内生变量基础上,更重要的是引入测度体制变化和状态的闸口变量,即将扭曲差值作为分析的主要内生变量。据此在学理上建立的二元体制经济数理逻辑分析过程和体系,给中国改革开放以来的高速增长和速度放缓一个数理逻辑的解释,并基于经济学理论给出未来经济增长的展望。
A New Mathematical Logical Framework for Explaining China’s Economic Growth—— Analytical Approaches Based on Distortion Differences in Dual-track System
Abstract: Where did China’s economic growth miracle come from in the past? Why has it declined since 2011? If it can grow at a medium-to-high rate,where does its potential lie? Current mainstream equations for China’s growth all use fluids as endogenous variables.Unlike market economy,developing and instantaneous transition countries,China is an extra-long-cycle gradual transition country with differences between market economic standard values and dual-track systemic distortion values,and distortions cannot be corrected by profit-maximizing entities.Observed from practices since 1978,dual-track system has caused idle and inefficient utilization,which formed system surpluses that imprison productivity with distortions; Growth was accelerated by advancing reforms to correct distortions.Therefore,China’s economy should be considered as an operating system consisting of fluids,channels and gates,where gates measure system,i.e.,differences are introduced as main endogenous variables.Based on this,dual-track systemic mathematical analyses are established: “calculating used resources’ quantities,comparing differences between standard values and distortion values,estimating inefficiency output losses’ scale,measuring system surpluses,obtaining potential through reforms,and forming new production growth functions”,which gives mathematical explanations for source and slowdown of China’s high growth and prospects for future economy.