杠杆周期与中国经济高质量发展:抵押品结构的视角
作者简介:王永钦,复旦大学金融研究院、经济学院教授,西南财经大学中国金融研究院“光华访问学者计划”讲座教授(上海 200433);褚浩男,复旦大学经济学院博士研究生(上海 200433)。
基金项目:
本文为国家自然科学基金面上项目“中国保险结构优化与经济高质量发展研究:理论、实证与政策”(72373029)、国家自然科学基金面上项目“中国债券市场和货币市场的流动性风险与违约风险:识别、评估与防范”(72073034)、国家自然科学基金创新研究群体项目“中国经济发展规律与治理机制研究”(72121002)的阶段性成果
摘要: 经济周期往往表现为杠杆周期,其中抵押品及其结构发挥着关键的作用。中国过于依赖房地产的抵押品结构和全球金融危机后的信用扩张为经济带来了巨大的系统性风险,其带来的债务积压问题也造成了中国的经济增速不断下滑,影响了中国经济的高质量发展。从长期看,中国需要通过法治和制度改革,以及革新中国以银行为主的金融体系,激活基于未来现金流的抵押品,以促进经济的高质量发展。在短期内,中国宜积极发行国债,扩大国债市场规模,优化国债结构,以国债替代房地产及其相关的资产,托起金融机构和经济其他部门受损的资产负债表,为中国的高质量发展换来时间。增发国债还会改善中国和全球的安全资产短缺的问题,为货币政策框架的重构以及更好的财政和货币政策配合奠定基础,有助于更好和更快地实现金融强国建设。
Leverage Cycle and High-Quality Economic Development of China: A Perspective of Collateral Structure
Abstract: Business cycles often manifest as leverage cycles,with collateral and its structure playing a crucial role.China’s overreliance on real estate collateral and excessive credit expansion after the global financial crisis has brought significant systemic risks to the economy,leading to a debt overhang that has contributed to the continuous decline in China’s economic growth rate,undermining the high-quality development of the Chinese economy.In the long term,China needs to activate collateral based on future cash flows through the rule of law and institutional reforms and its bank system to promote high-quality economic development.In the short term,China should actively issue government bonds,expand the government bond market,optimize the bond structure,and use national bonds to replace real estate and its related assets,supporting financial institutions and other sectors with damaged balance sheets,buying time for China’s high-quality development.Increasing national bond issuance will also mitigate the shortage of safe assets facing China and the world,lay the foundation for a new monetary policy framework,and enhance better coordination between fiscal and monetary policies,helping China become a financial powerhouse.