市场型计划经济：数字经济的未来发展图景
The Future Development of Digital Economy and the Vision of Market-typed Planned Economy
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摘要: 市场型计划经济是一个既有别于纯粹市场经济，也区别于市场和计划相混合经济，更不同于政府官员拍脑袋的行政型计划经济的范畴。数字经济未来发展导致市场型计划经济模式，是以厂商能够获取完全信息为基本条件，以新科技成为市场资源配置主角以及整个社会实现顶级科技水准为前提。市场型计划经济之所以被视为一幅图景，是因为它具备了理论探索价值但在相当长的时期内又不具有现实意义的缘故。针对大数据时代资源配置方式有可能会改变的情况，我们需要搞清楚信息是不是完全来源于大数据以及怎样来源于大数据，需要弄明白数字经济未来发展会形成什么样的科技水准，需要解说人类挖掘和搜集大数据的方法、途径和技术条件配置，需要解释数字经济未来发展将会使以人工智能等新科技手段为载体的“算力和算法”推至什么样的高度，需要解释“算力和算法”达到什么样的高度才有可能准确预判总供给和总需求及其结构。通过重点分析人类挖掘、搜集、储存、整合、分类、加工和处理大数据的科技水准变动，力图通过顶级科技水准对市场型计划经济有没有可能实现的逻辑进行考量。关于对数字经济未来发展与市场型计划经济图景之相关性的探讨，不夹带任何主张计划经济的思想倾向。Abstract: The market-typed planned economy is a category, which is neither the pure market economy nor the mixed economy of market and planning, and let alone the administrative planned economy of which government officials make decision causelessly. The future development of the digital economy will lead to a market-oriented planned economy model, if the manufacturers can obtain complete information and the new technology becomes the protagonist in market resource allocation and the entire society achieves top-level technological level. The reason why market-oriented planned economy is regarded as a vision is because it has theoretical exploration value but has not practical significance for a considerable period of time. This article focuses on analyzing the technological level changes of human mining, collection, storage, integration, classification, processing of big data. It attempts to consider the logic of whether a market-oriented planned economy is available by analyzing the top-level technological level. In response to the possibility of changing of ways for resource allocation in the era of big data, we need to clarify whether information comes entirely from big data and how it comes from big data. We need to understand the level of technology that the digital economy will develop in the future, and explain the methods, approaches, and technical conditions for human exploration and collection of big data. It is necessary to explain to what extent the future development of the digital economy will push the “computing power and algorithm” based on new scientific and technological means such as artificial intelligence, and to what extent the “computing power and algorithm” will reach before it is possible to accurately predict total supply and total demand with their structure. This article focuses on analyzing the technological level changes of human mining, collection, storage, integration, classification, and processing of big data, aiming to consider the logic of whether a market-oriented planned economy is possibly realized through top-level technological level. The article explores the correlation between the future development of the digital economy and the market oriented planned economy landscape, without any ideological tendency advocating for planned economy.
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