资本竞争视域下的最优贴现率
The Optimal Discount Rate of the Capital on the Perspective of Capital Competition
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摘要: 通过将主流经济学中针对产品和要素配置的市场竞争拓展到资本领域，可以从资本价格和贴现率入手，构建一个资本竞争的范式。任何贴现率都面临收益和风险之间的权衡，资本之间的竞争最终取决于资产的临界贴现率。要达到风险—收益的最佳组合，就需要在不同层次的资本市场之间重新配置信用。在开放经济下，不同的资本市场分别通过调控贴现率和信用额度相互竞争。货币政策的核心，就是管理贴现率以避免任何一个层级的资产价格因信用额度不足而崩溃。面对布雷顿森林体系2.0版本，中国必须做好独立创造基础货币的准备，不恰当的财税改革可能令中国不战自溃。贴现率对虚拟和实体财富具有完全相反的效果，进而导致财富管理两难，“双轨制”很可能是“鱼和熊掌”可以兼得的唯一的制度路径。Abstract: This paper extends the market competition for the allocation of products and factors in mainstream economics to the field of capital, constructs a paradigm of capital competition from the perspective of capital price and discount rate. In this paradigm, any discount rate faces a trade-off between benefits and risks, the competition between capitals ultimately depends on the critical discount rate of assets. To achieve an optimal risk-return mix, it is required that a reallocation of credit between different levels of capital markets. In an open economy, different capital markets compete with each other by regulating discount rates and credit lines, respectively. The core of monetary policy is managing the discount rate so that asset prices at any one level do not collapse due to a lack of credit. Facing the Bretton Woods 2.0, China must be prepared to create its own base currency, an improper fiscal and tax reform may cause China to collapse without a fight. The discount rate has completely opposite effects on virtual and real wealth, which leads to a dilemma of wealth management, under this circumstance, the dual-track system is probably the only institutional path that can have it all.
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Key words:
- modern economy /
- critical discount rate /
- credit structure /
- double-track system
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