中国奇迹的政治经济逻辑
The Political-Economy Logic of the China Miracle
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摘要: 长期经济绩效的差异并不主要取决于高增长，更取决于经济衰退的幅度和频率，后者由朝向权利开放的制度变迁中的政治与经济互动和秩序稳定性决定。实现长期经济绩效的关键是：（1）通过国家的有效治理能力、对暴力资源的控制和对外责任制等政治制度变革，保证有序的租金再分配秩序；（2）通过市场准入规则和权利再配置、产权保护以及人际规则的非人格化等经济制度变革，保证新权利规则有利于经济进步和租金绩效改善；（3）通过持续的政治经济互动防止租金分配失衡和制度结构失衡带来的制度衰退。正是改革开放后政治制度和经济制度的阶段性互动调适，保障了中国经济从“体制转轨”到“高速增长”的跃迁。中国的“高速增长体制”不仅面临绩效困境，也面临秩序风险，要在新发展阶段保持持续的经济绩效，必须构建朝向权利开放社会的政治经济体制。Abstract: The difference in long-term economic performance does not mainly depend on economic growth rate, but also on the magnitude and frequency of its shrink, which is determined by the interaction of politics-economy and the stability of order embedded in the institutional changes toward an open access order. For long-term economic performance, there are three key requirements. Firstly, to fulfill orderly rent distribution arrangements, the reforms in political areas are needed, including effective state capacity building, control of violent resources and external accountability. Secondly, to ensure the new rules are conducive to economic growth and rent performance improvement, reforms in economic system are requested through reset of market access rules and rights, protection of property rights and the impersonalized rules. Last but not the least, to prevent institutional decay caused by imbalances in rent distribution and institutional structure, continuous political-economic interaction is particularly required, and this serves as the core logic for understanding the China miracle. Periodically interaction and adjustment between political system and economic institutions ensure the fluent transition of China’s economy from “institutional transformation” to “high growth” since its reform and opening-up. However, there are still performance dilemmas and out of order risks impeding the country from achieving sustainable economic performance, and an institutional system towards more open-access order is essential.
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