百年变局下的共同富裕：收入差距的视角
Common Prosperity under the Changes Unseen in a Century: From a Perspective on Income Gap
-
摘要: 百年未有之大变局，叠加汹涌澎湃的逆全球化浪潮，使得“高出口、高投资、高增长”的东亚经济发展模式难以为继，对长期消费不振的中国经济持续增长构成了严峻挑战。鉴于此，中国必须尽快缩小收入差距，以推动共同富裕，进而提振内需，畅通双循环。通过聚焦于收入差距问题，基于对中国的收入阶梯状况、收入分配趋势变化的分析，可以从多个角度出发讨论中国收入差距的来源和关键影响因素。研究发现，中国收入不均等主要原因在于城乡二元分割、劳动占比过低、教育差距过大和社会保障不足。针对以上问题，提出了如下政策建议：用居住证替代户口，加快推进城镇化市民化进程；普及12年义务教育，继续扩大高校招生；加大社会保障力度，逐步消除中度贫困；完善税收金融制度，提高劳动占比。如能在未来三十年稳步落实上述举措，预期将使中国的收入基尼系数下降30%−40%，同时促进经济增长，使得中国在21世纪中叶后实现共同富裕。Abstract: The changes unseen in a century, coupled with the surging tide of anti-globalization, have made the “high export, high investment, high growth” pattern of economic development in East Asia unsustainable and posed a serious challenge to the long-term growth of China’s economy, which has long been faced with under consumption. In view of this, China must promote common prosperity and narrow the income gap as soon as possible in order to boost domestic demand and promote a dual circulation. Focusing on the issue of income inequality, this paper reports for the first time on the China’s income ladder, analyses the changing trends in income distribution, and discusses the sources and key factors of China’s income inequality from a number of perspectives. We finds that the main causes of income inequality in China are the urban-rural segmentation, the low labor share, the large education gap and inadequate social security. In response to these problems, this paper proposes the following policy recommendations: replace hukou (“户口”) with residence permits and speed up the process of urbanization and citizenization, implement 12-year compulsory education and continue to expand university enrolment, increase social security expenditure and gradually eliminate moderate poverty, and improve the tax and financial system to increase the labor share. Steady implementation of these initiatives over the next 30 years is expected to reduce China’s income Gini index by 30-40%, while boosting economic growth and enabling China to achieve common prosperity after the middle of the century.
-
Key words:
- common prosperity /
- income gap /
- urban-rural gap /
- education /
- labor share /
- social security
-
表 1 中国收入阶梯：不同阶层家庭人均年收入（单位：元）
收入阶层 年份 收入阶层 年份 2019 2000 1978 2019 顶端90% 61595 7598.7 355.13 顶端1% 138040 顶端80% 48264.5 6056.5 306.1 顶端2% 110550 顶端70% 37005 4906.8 254.39 顶端3% 96413 顶端60% 31461 3902.4 216.05 顶端4% 87113 中端50% 24387 3073.01 188.94 顶端5% 80507 底端40% 19251 2411.34 166.4 顶端6% 75315 底端30% 15537 1908.3 145.55 顶端7% 71056 底端20% 12095.5 1479.37 123.97 顶端8% 67453 底端10% 8135.5 1039.52 97.57 顶端9% 64338 数据来源：基于《中国统计年鉴》里的收入分组数据进行估算而得。 
下载: 导出CSV
-
下载:
点击查看大图
图(6)表(1)
计量
- 文章访问数: 616
- HTML全文浏览量: 111
沪公网安备 31010102003103号