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Volume 51 Issue 4
April 2019
Article Contents

Citation: Wei LIU and Jian SU. Keep the Bottom Line and Ensure Economic Security[J]. Academic Monthly, 2019, 51(4): 43-53. shu

Keep the Bottom Line and Ensure Economic Security

  • China’s economic growth has remained within a reasonable range in 2018. However, the downward pressure has not diminished. There are several factors which affect the future of the Chinese economy, including the turning point of the population, the Sino-US trade war and the fall of growth of the world economy. We predict that in 2019, China’s economy will experience contraction in both supply and demand sides. The important risks include exchange rate and currency crisis, real estate crisis, local government debt problem, rising unemployment rate, and corporate debt problem; therefore, risk prevention will be the primary economic policy goal. Based on the macroeconomic management system with Chinese characteristics including market reform, supply management and demand management, in 2019, the combination of China’s macroeconomic policies includes improving market environment (which is the main measure), expansionary supply management (which comes secondly), and then expansionary demand management (which is an important adjunct).
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      Conglai FANJian LINYijiang CHENG . Macro Prudential Management and Micro Prudential Regulatory: Construction of Policy Coordination Mechanism. Academic Monthly, 2022, 54(9): 35-45.

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      TIAN Ping . Macroscopic Resource Allocation Theory and the Empirical Research on China’s Development. Academic Monthly, 2023, 55(12): 52-61.

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      Sheng LI . Legal Rhetoric in Social-Historical Context: Macro Function under the View of Community Construction. Academic Monthly, 2021, 53(9): 113-128.

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          Keep the Bottom Line and Ensure Economic Security

          Abstract: China’s economic growth has remained within a reasonable range in 2018. However, the downward pressure has not diminished. There are several factors which affect the future of the Chinese economy, including the turning point of the population, the Sino-US trade war and the fall of growth of the world economy. We predict that in 2019, China’s economy will experience contraction in both supply and demand sides. The important risks include exchange rate and currency crisis, real estate crisis, local government debt problem, rising unemployment rate, and corporate debt problem; therefore, risk prevention will be the primary economic policy goal. Based on the macroeconomic management system with Chinese characteristics including market reform, supply management and demand management, in 2019, the combination of China’s macroeconomic policies includes improving market environment (which is the main measure), expansionary supply management (which comes secondly), and then expansionary demand management (which is an important adjunct).

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