守住底线，确保经济安全—2019年经济形势展望与政策建议
Keep the Bottom Line and Ensure Economic Security
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摘要: 2018年中国经济增长维持在合理区间，但下行压力不减。人口拐点、中美贸易摩擦和世界经济回落成为影响未来中国经济的重要因素。展望2019年，中国经济自然走势是供给需求“双收缩”。汇率及货币危机、房地产危机、地方政府债务、失业率上升、企业债务等成为重要风险点，因此，防风险将是首要经济政策目标。基于包括市场化改革、供给管理、需求管理三大类政策的中国特色宏观调控体系，2019年，中国宏观经济政策的组合是加快市场环境治理为主，供给管理次之，需求管理为辅。Abstract: China’s economic growth has remained within a reasonable range in 2018. However, the downward pressure has not diminished. There are several factors which affect the future of the Chinese economy, including the turning point of the population, the Sino-US trade war and the fall of growth of the world economy. We predict that in 2019, China’s economy will experience contraction in both supply and demand sides. The important risks include exchange rate and currency crisis, real estate crisis, local government debt problem, rising unemployment rate, and corporate debt problem; therefore, risk prevention will be the primary economic policy goal. Based on the macroeconomic management system with Chinese characteristics including market reform, supply management and demand management, in 2019, the combination of China’s macroeconomic policies includes improving market environment (which is the main measure), expansionary supply management (which comes secondly), and then expansionary demand management (which is an important adjunct).
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Key words:
- economic security /
- risk prevention /
- macroeconomic management
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表 1 2018年5月—12月中国主要城市住房均价环比增速
5月 6月 7月 8月 9月 10月 11月 12月 北京 5.78% −0.67% 1.40% −4.84% −0.74% −1.35% −1.34% −1.82% 上海 2.27% −0.29% −1.10% −0.40% −1.38% −3.01% −5.09% −0.32% 广州 −0.25% −0.08% 2.94% −1.23% −3.17% −4.61% −2.99% −2.30% 深圳 0.48% 2.20% 0.64% −3.58% 1.57% 0.50% −3.16% −0.25% 天津 −0.49% 4.89% −0.93% −0.28% −5.01% −6.55% −7.99% −3.22% 重庆 6.48% 9.37% 1.60% −0.25% −2.70% −1.20% −4.40% −2.90% 成都 0.13% −1.43% −3.73% −0.68% −2.30% −5.15% −4.62% −1.98% 大连 3.72% 1.54% 1.76% 0.85% −1.78% −3.36% −2.57% 0.93% 杭州 4.63% −0.15% −3.01% −2.82% 4.25% 1.79% −5.54% −4.57% 合肥 0.56% −0.02% 0.15% 0.66% 2.10% 0.32% −1.94% −0.34% 济南 −0.68% −0.46% −0.14% 1.53% −2.88% −1.71% −4.44% −2.21% 南京 4.77% −1.30% −0.57% 2.44% −0.30% −2.23% −2.54% 2.14% 青岛 3.86% −0.44% 0.62% −0.25% −1.79% −5.36% −1.42% −4.07% 厦门 −2.89% 2.38% −4.40% −1.90% 0.75% −0.67% −1.66% −0.92% 沈阳 −3.07% 1.60% 2.01% 0.14% 1.38% −4.19% −3.95% −4.18% 石家庄 −1.49% −0.93% 1.27% −2.14% −0.11% −3.32% −5.96% −0.34% 无锡 −0.44% 2.34% −1.88% −4.21% −3.86% −7.57% −1.81% −1.11% 武汉 −0.63% 0.13% −1.08% 1.02% −9.86% 2.44% −2.35% −0.37% 西安 9.06% 4.11% −1.19% −0.32% −6.53% −6.32% −0.99% 0.92% 长沙 3.82% 2.26% −2.43% 1.20% −1.75% −0.17% −4.18% −2.50% 郑州 0.32% 1.29% −6.47% 5.61% 0.85% −5.22% −4.53% −2.64% 数据来源：北京大学国民经济研究中心。 
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