中国的经济增长、波动与地区差距

葛晶; 刘瑞明

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November 2022

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Citation: Jing GE and Ruiming LIU. China’s Economic Growth, Fluctuation and Regional Disparities[J]. Academic Monthly, 2022, 54(2): 63-78. shu

China’s Economic Growth, Fluctuation and Regional Disparities

Jing GE ,
Ruiming LIU

Abstract

A key feature of China’s transition period has been the rapid expansion of the private economy, which has been accompanied by high economic growth, significant economic volatility, and large regional disparities. It is puzzling why a traditionally planned country like China would race to a private economy. And how did the relevant economic characteristics arise? This study proposes a unified explanation for the characteristics above under a framework of Chinese style decentralization. Central to our explanation is the political incentive based on relative performance evaluation (RPE), which leads to imitation among subnational governments’ decision. First, the imitation incentivizes subnational governments’ race to privatization and achieves unprecedented economic growth. Second, imitation amplifies the influence of the change in the central government’s preferences on subnational governments’ decision making and triggers the “ebb and flow” of the private sector, causing economic fluctuation. Third, state-owned enterprises (SOEs) weaken the incentive of RPE on subnational governments through “soft budget constraint,” creating economic growth gap among regions with different numbers of SOE. This paper has some policy implications for the future of China to boost initiative of economic development, smooth economic fluctuations and coordinate regional development.
- Chinese style decentralization,
- economic transition,
- economic growth,
- economic fluctuation,
- regional disparity
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沈阳化工大学材料科学与工程学院沈阳 110142

China’s Economic Growth, Fluctuation and Regional Disparities

Jing GE
Ruiming LIU

Available Online: 2022-02-20

Abstract: A key feature of China’s transition period has been the rapid expansion of the private economy, which has been accompanied by high economic growth, significant economic volatility, and large regional disparities. It is puzzling why a traditionally planned country like China would race to a private economy. And how did the relevant economic characteristics arise? This study proposes a unified explanation for the characteristics above under a framework of Chinese style decentralization. Central to our explanation is the political incentive based on relative performance evaluation (RPE), which leads to imitation among subnational governments’ decision. First, the imitation incentivizes subnational governments’ race to privatization and achieves unprecedented economic growth. Second, imitation amplifies the influence of the change in the central government’s preferences on subnational governments’ decision making and triggers the “ebb and flow” of the private sector, causing economic fluctuation. Third, state-owned enterprises (SOEs) weaken the incentive of RPE on subnational governments through “soft budget constraint,” creating economic growth gap among regions with different numbers of SOE. This paper has some policy implications for the future of China to boost initiative of economic development, smooth economic fluctuations and coordinate regional development.